More positive vaccine news, but prices down...

LQM Weekly Report November 9th 2020


Crude had a mixed week. Initially, with the announcement that Pfizer has a 90% effective Corona Virus vaccine, crude firmed by 10%. With the realization that there are not short term changers and the positive case counts are increasing, the market eased by weeks end. Today, we are back to a firm scene with the US president elect confirming there would not be a national lockdown (hence maintaining demand) and hope that OPEC+ would maintain their production cut, despite Libya product now looking about 1.145m bpd and the US rig count at its highest since May. There is a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) this week which monitors OPEC+ compliance and this may lead to some volatility as info comes out. The market also strengthened Monday on news that a second experimental Corona Virus Vaccine, by Moderna Inc, was showing a 94.5% effective rate.


Singapore is still tight on HSFO and VSFLO with earliest 9 days and 7 days out, Fujairah avails improving and 3-4 days out. Korea and main Chinese ports looking 3-5 days out, but HSFO seeming tighter in most ports. ARA and main Med ports looking 4-5 days out. US Gulf avails are good with suppliers looking for 4-5 days notice. Weather conditions in Panama have deteriorated over the weekend causing congestion on the Cristóbal side as barges have not been able to load. Due to this, Balboa is expecting heavy congestion due to vessel delays in transiting.