The vaccine can't cure this volatility

LQM Weekly Report November 9th 2020


Last week saw a firm start, but as the US elections results became more positive for Joe Biden, the prices came off. Similarly, the news that Libyan product passed 1 million bpd also reduced prices. Today there is news that a Covid-19 vaccine could be closer. We saw Brent and WTI firm by 10%, any vaccine (if it is approved) will not be available for most people in the world for many months yet – but it is a very positive piece of news. Tropical Storm ETA could still affect some US Gulf production and the US rig count is still increasing.


Singapore avails are very tight with earliest delivery from many suppliers 11 days out. Fujairah is also tight and about a week out, although cargo avails are still looking tight for the second half of November, so may not improve much in the short term. Korea and China are not too congested and 2-3 days out is possible in some ports, with prices cheaper than Singapore due to the tightness.  Rotterdam avails OK – looking 5-6 days out, Med looking about the same 3-5 days out depending on dates and requirement. US Gulf avails are good with some suppliers able to offer with a few days notice. Some suppliers are already congested through mid month in Long Beach.


Bunker prices are very volatile today, with many suppliers in Asia not quoting by US opening so firm quotes could be quite different from the indications below.